International energy supply and security has been largely dependent on the mutual understanding of the two superpowers, USA and Russia, still dividing several regions in the world to their power-political games.
Overall, after the fall of the Soviet empire, international consultants have reverted their attention to American foreign policy to see where security arrangements were necessary. The diminishing influence of the Soviet Bear, the opening of the Caspian and Central Asian states for foreign investment and the liberalization of the Arab economies gave food for the theory that the USA is ruling, Uncle Sams word is law. The last months this dictum has however come under growing pressure. Russias new president Putin, slowly but steadily, has built up a more assertive Russian foreign policy, first concentrating on its own neighbor countries, at present with renewed attention for the second circle of influence, the Middle East, Africa and Asia. This will and already has influenced the security of energy supply of the Western countries. Until now, analysts have not presented new answers but studies will have to be done to readdress these questions.
When Russian jet fighters swooped down over the US aircraft carrier Kitty Hawk in the Sea of Japan, recently, the American crew did not see them coming until it was far too late. If the Russian pilots would have harbored hostile intent, the carrier would have been sunk! Several incidents, such as the above, in the recent weeks have shown that for all Americas enormous complacency, its former Cold War rival can still present a military challenge. There is a general agreement in Washington that since president Boris Yeltsin stood down last March, US-Russian relations have been on the slide. Washington found in Yeltsin a biddable partner. The much younger and more energetic Putin, aged 48, is increasingly taking on the US around the world. Since becoming president of Russia, Putin has recommended arms sales to Iran. He has been assiduously rebuilding commercial links with Americas greatest foe, Iraq, helping to develop its oilfields in defiance of UN sanctions. And thirdly, he has intervened in the US-led Middle East peace process, recently hosting Arafat in Moscow and courting Arab opinion.
The Russian leader is also challenging the USA in Asia, by courting directly with India, signing lucrative arms deals. Additionally, he has cemented the ties with China, increasing the military and weapons exports to this country, already identified by President-elect George W. Bush as the biggest potential 21st century threat to American (Western security).
Last November, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov announced already in Beijing his governments open support for an axis consisting of Russia, China and India, whenever these states wanted it. The main driver behind this political program is a comprehensive and global opposition to American global policy.
Of importance is the combined Russian-Chinese policy to exclude the United States from the Central Asian region. Both countries want to monopolize the huge energy resources located there, stifle democracy and opposition. The latter largely under the pretext of addressing terrorism, while placing pro-Moscow appointees in charge of those states militaries and police, integrate them with Russias and Chinas forces, integrate those states resources and defense industries with their own, and mobilize political support for anti-American agendas.
The anti-American approach, would benefit both parties. To the extent that the international agenda can be focused on Islamic separatism, terrorism, and United States threats to international order as expressed in the Kosovo operation, China and Russia could shift the spotlight from a focus on their own continuing imperial and aggressive revisionism.
Another motive for the tripartite cooperation (Russia, India, China) would be the shared opposition to nationalist or religious Muslim assertion in Kashmir, Central Asia and Xinjiang (Chinese province). All this could divert international/American attention from the underlying policy, ENERGY.
All in all, international political considerations related to the border states of Russia, or former Soviet Union, are and will be related to the energy resources. Growing dependency and energy requirements of the Western countries, higher oil prices and instability in the Middle East are proponing the thesis of the importance of Caspian and Central Asia. The build up of an anti-American/Western block in Asia and the Caspian, with enormous potential of a renewed anti-western front in the Middle East, would indefinitely threaten energy security of supplies in the coming years. The world should watch out for a renewed East-West confrontation, this time related to energy resources that are dwindling. The time is right to act, the possibility of a new Iron (Oil/Gas) curtain is possible. For Europe and the USA with the energy resources needed on the wrong side of the curtain.
Points that are still in the USAs favor are however the facts that Russia still needs IMF, World Bank and private sector western loans and capital investment if Russias still dire economic situation is to improve. There is still much room for leverage in this area although it may diminish as Putins global search for trade, exports and business proceeds. A more pro-active approach of these questions, with in depth attention for the developments around Iraq, Iran, Libya and the Caspian is needed.
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Reprinted as submitted.